Thursday, July 9, 2009

UFC 100, Legacies and Dynasties in the UFC

WOW - Lesnar vs. Mir II. Honestly, I do not give Mir much of a chance. Brock is evolving into a complete fighter; that coupled with his overwhelming physical presence makes it unlikely that he will be beaten anytime soon. Of course, this is the UFC and anything can happen, but let me outline this for you. If you look at the size of his head and neck, you can see that the chance of a flash knockout from anyone is minimal. His neck and arms are so huge that submissions via choke and arm locks are equally unlikely. His weakness is his legs - he could still fall victim to repeated kicks to the leg or leg locks; however, after falling victim to a leg lock from Mir, I know he has trained extensively to counter this eventuality. In addition, his physical presence enables a "wading in" and punching/wrestling style that leaves very few opportunities to land kicks to the legs. In short, I think Brock could be champ for quite a while.

The more interesting fight is GSP vs Thiago Alves. I like both these fighters, but I would love for Alves to win. The 170 pound division has lots of good fighters, and I like the mix up in the division. I think that this will be a much more exciting fight than the Mir-Lesnar fight, and I hope for a great showing for the American Top Team from Alves. GSP can never be overlooked, so it should be a fantastic fight.

But here is some interesting things about the UFC right now. With the top three weight classes dominated by Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida, and Brock Lesnar, I do not see much in the way of competition for anyone coming down the pike anytime soon. Lesnar is too huge (and now well-rounded), Machida is too evasive (and well-rounded), and Silva is too potent a striker (and well-rounded) for any of them to be taken out by anything but a total fluke. If you want my prognostication, however, Silva is the most likely to descend back to earth. He is too cocky and, at times, lackadaisical in his approach to his opposition - he could get caught and lose, and it will probably happen long before it happens to Lesnar or Machida (both of whom have extreme focus).

Now, how about some of my dreams - Silva has gone up in weight before - what about a Silva vs Machida fight - absolutely amazing. I don't know if he could move down to fight GSP or Alves, but maybe a catch-weight fight between Silva and GSP or Alves. What about a catch-weight bout between Machida and Lesnar? Machida would be physically vastly over-matched, but could he be elusive enough to actually provide Lesnar with competition? I don't know but I would give my eye-teeth to see any of those fights.

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